Many years ago, amid the GFC, as a work-out officer in a “bad bank” (restructuring team of a universal bank), I had an idea to conduct research on a micro-scale, in my portfolio and the portfolios of my team, aimed at identifying the causes of the companies’ crises. There were myriads of reasons, both exogenic and endogenic, direct and indirect ones. Yet, they all had a common factor – the management reaction was too late.
Contrary to popular beliefs, seldom does a crisis arise overnight. Some of the events that have been famously dubbed “black swans” (the term coined by Nassim Taleb for the “unknown unknowns”) are actually “grey or white swans”, or “grey rhinos” i.e. they could have been predicted or expected. Crises in enterprises are often preceded by symptoms – whether latent or apparent – that manifest in many areas. And they do offer a short “recovery window” where the situation can be remedied without spinning out of control, still enabling a “soft landing”.
The common red flags include i.a.:
- Market: loss of competitiveness or market share; failure to adapt to changed market environment,
- Operations: unmanaged growth / expansion, not coupled with the growth in profits and cash flows; supply chain issues; client concentration (overreliance on one client); inefficient processes; delayed capex and maintenance expenditure
- Finance: declining margins; increasing overheads and other costs; extended cash collection cycle (due to overdue receivables and excess or obsolete inventory); increased debt and delayed/overdue payments
The earlier the restructuring measures are taken, the more solutions are available to achieve both, financial restructuring and turnaround of the entire business. Time is crucial to stop the deterioration and to be able to choose from a broad spectrum of restructuring measures. And no decision is also a decision and should be taken intentionally with full awareness of possible implications.
Yet, more often than not, the early warning signals remain without reaction. Why do experienced managers, knowing their businesses inside out, disregard those red flags?
We are all prone to common cognitive errors: sunk cost fallacy and commitment bias (holding on to past decisions), hope bias, selective perception. One may tend to believe optimistically that the market conditions will improve and then the business recovery will happen automatically. He or she may underestimate the effect of those warning signals. Acknowledging the problem, coupled with concerns of negative sentiment around the company, is a significant barrier that inhibits managers from acting early. The first step requires a lot of energy and attention, which is normally devoted to daily operations. Still, there are specialized, expert advisors that are aware of those sensitivities. At that early, yet critical stage, they offer the managers trusted support, with the information being shared only on an absolute need to know basis.
The remedies applied should be aimed at achieving quick wins and ensuring short-term liquidity on one hand, while working out and implementing a long-term and sustainable business reorganization on the other hand.
Depending on the stage of the crisis, they may include the following measures:
- financial: amend & extend – renegotiating terms of finance, prolongations, waivers, debt-to-equity swap, as well as measures aimed at improving liquidity quickly: sales & leaseback, asset disposal, optimizing cash conversion cycle also through factoring and sales of receivables, equity injections if possible (from existing shareholders or new strategic or passive investors)
- structural: business divestitures, spin-offs, split-offs, carve-outs, It is easier to manage the profitability of such separated business units, to focus on the core business and if need be or if it is a business case – to dispose those units
- organizational: shareholding-as-as-service (ShaaS), aimed at the deconsolidation of a business unit while maintaining control contractually; appointing external restructuring officers that bring restructuring experience, momentum and additional perspectives, while allowing the management to focus on their core business
- operational: outsourcing non-core functions, streamlining operational processes
- legal / formal proceedings: various forms of restructuring proceedings, pre-packs (pre-arranged asset sale) – depending on jurisdiction and applicable law
The key success factors are:
- early action
- credible restructuring plan
- proper stakeholder management
and – the turnaround expertise to prepare and implement all the aforementioned. This can be achieved through appointing an interim manager tasked with restructuring.
To conclude, should you notice any of the red flags in your company – the time to act is now. You are not alone. Team up with trusted experts and draw on their toolbox. Analyze the current status critically and based on the outcome – decide on and implement the corrective measures. Do not miss your “recovery window”.
You will never be too early in starting to transform. In the best case, when the crisis does not materialize, you have streamlined the operations and performance of your company, preparing for the worst, expecting the best.
The positive about crisis is – it forces you to seek new ways, to transform, to innovate – and thus to experience a post crisis growth.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-turn-black-swans-white-why-quick-reaction-matters-bednarz-fcca-taaxe
Company Contact:
Lagrange Financial Advisory GmbH
Monika Bednarz
Managing Director